// GUIDE — TRADING
How to Trade Kalshi With AI
May 21, 2026 · Yeti Games, LLC
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange where you trade on real-world events — jobs reports, Fed decisions, CPI prints, elections. Each market is a yes/no question priced between 1¢ and 99¢. That price is an implied probability.
Most traders go on vibes. Edge comes from doing more research than the market has done. Claude AI does that research in minutes — reading actual BLS releases, ADP reports, jobless claims, and consensus forecasts, then finding where the market price diverges from what the data actually suggests.
That divergence is your trade.
The 5-Step System
The workflow runs entirely from the command line — Claude Code plus the Kalshi CLI. Five commands, each with a specific job:
Scan all economics markets for events worth researching. Parallel AI agents dig into each candidate simultaneously.
An adversarial analyst reviews every research file looking specifically for reasons NOT to trade. Returns TRADE / PASS / NEEDS MORE WORK.
Rank candidates 0–100 by edge size, confidence, liquidity, and timing. Tells you where to put capital first.
Claude reads your research, checks live balance, gives a sized recommendation. You approve — then it places a limit order inside the spread.
Review open positions against their original thesis after every major data release. HOLD or SELL with reasoning.
The Real Trade
Live session, May 7, 2026. Market: April 2026 NFP — will above 0 jobs be added? Market implied probability: 72%. Our AI research estimate after reading ADP, jobless claims, and recent NFP history: 82%. That's +10 percentage points of edge.
The full research thesis, orderbook analysis, smart order execution, and position management are documented step-by-step in the playbook.
// CLAUDE_KALSHI_PLAYBOOK
Get the Complete System — $17
Every command, every flag, every fix. The full 5-step workflow with the real trade documented from first scan to executed position. Setup guides for macOS and Windows. Sizing rules. When to pass. How to exit.
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